Strategic Vision Lab
Alfaisal University · Riyadh

National visions are coordination architectures.

A national vision is not merely a plan. It is a coordination architecture: a focal point, a portfolio of commitments, and a set of institutions that turn strategic ambition into delivery.

Coordination is the scarce resource. Plans are abundant. What is scarce is the capacity to align rules, capital, markets, data, firms and capabilities across time — and to revise that alignment as conditions change.

SVL studies that architecture. We treat strategic visions as bundles of focal points, capital commitments, institutional reforms, market signals, talent systems and delivery routines. We ask which combinations produce measurable public value, on what timescale, and at what cost.

SVL is Saudi-first by design: we are based in Riyadh, at the College of Business at Alfaisal University, and Saudi Vision 2030 gives us a live anchor case: a national transformation still being built, measured, revised and contested in real time. But we are comparative by discipline: the similarities are useful; the differences are where the strategy lessons live.

Coordination is the scarce resource. National visions matter when they create the institutional capacity to act across time.

Four connected layers.

SVL studies four connected layers of transformation. The practical failures usually appear between them: a vision without capital discipline, an institution without market uptake, a market without firms, or a capability without demand.

  • i.
    Vision & Portfolio.

    How national visions are structured, governed, sequenced, measured and adapted. Direction, staged commitments, option value, strategic attention and reallocation discipline.

  • ii.
    Institutions.

    Rules, rails, incentives, governance and delivery routines. Digital identity, registries, e-invoicing, procurement, regulation, and the unglamorous infrastructure that lets markets form.

  • iii.
    Markets & Firms.

    Capital, talent, procurement, supplier depth and trust. How sectors form, ecosystems thicken, and venture and patient capital combine to produce diversified productivity-led growth.

  • iv.
    Capabilities.

    Research systems, sectoral capacity, implementation know-how and the AI-augmented decision infrastructure that turns institutional ambition into routine practice.

Mechanism From digital infrastructure to public value
  1. i. Digital infrastructure Identity, registries, e-invoicing, data rails.
  2. ii. Institutions Rules, regulators, procurement routines.
  3. iii. Markets Signals, prices, capital flows.
  4. iv. Firms Sectors, suppliers, ecosystems.
  5. v. Diversification & public value Productivity-led growth; measurable outcomes.

How we work.

SVL begins with a strategic question, then builds the evidence around it. Some questions require comparison across countries. Some require institutional and market-design analysis. Some require data, interviews, dashboards or prototypes. The standard is simple: the work must be rigorous enough for a seminar and clear enough for a decision meeting.

Most SVL work is deliberately short: one strategic question, one clear argument, enough evidence to support action.

Method · 01

Map the system.

We identify the actors, incentives, institutions, funding flows and delivery routines before recommending action.

Method · 02

Use evidence that can be checked.

We work from public data, administrative records, market evidence, interviews and partner documents where available.

Method · 03

Compare mechanisms, not slogans.

We compare how similar problems are handled across countries, sectors and institutions.

Method · 04

Produce work people can act on.

Each brief ends with implications for strategy, governance, measurement or implementation.

Research foundations.

SVL's briefs, cases, diagnostics and programmes draw on a curated body of research across institutions, markets, data, entrepreneurship, growth, labour, finance and state capacity. The list is selective. It shows the intellectual foundations behind SVL's briefs, diagnostics and programmes.

01

National visions and state capacity

Hayek (1945), The Use of Knowledge in Society

Explains why national strategy must work through decentralised signals, not command alone.

North (1991), Institutions

Explains why rules, incentives and routines shape what organisations can actually do.

Rodrik (2008), Second-Best Institutions

Keeps institutional design tied to local constraints rather than imported best-practice templates.

Andrews, Pritchett & Woolcock (2013), Capability Traps

Frames implementation failure as a capability problem, not only a planning problem.

02

Markets and institutional infrastructure

Coase (1937), The Nature of the Firm

Anchors the transaction-cost logic behind firms, markets and institutional boundaries.

Williamson (1979), Transaction-Cost Economics

Provides language for rules, procurement, contracting and the cost of coordination.

Hart & Moore (1990), Property Rights and the Nature of the Firm

Clarifies why ownership, control and residual claims matter in market formation.

Djankov et al. (2002), The Regulation of Entry / Djankov et al. (2003), Courts

Links administrative rails, entry rules and courts to the practical formation of markets.

03

Digital markets, data and trusted claims

Rochet & Tirole (2003), Two-Sided Markets

Supports analysis of platforms, market design and multi-sided institutional rails.

Goldfarb & Tucker (2019), Digital Economics

Frames digital infrastructure as an economic change in search, replication and verification costs.

Jones & Tonetti (2020), The Economics of Data

Supports the health-data and trusted-claims work by treating data as a distinctive economic asset.

Acquisti, Taylor & Wagman (2016), The Economics of Privacy

Keeps data-market work anchored in privacy, consent, trust and institutional legitimacy.

Cong & He (2019), Blockchain Disruption and Smart Contracts

Helps distinguish token hype from the serious institutional problem of verified claims.

04

Entrepreneurship, innovation and sector formation

Baumol (1990), Productive, Unproductive and Destructive Entrepreneurship

Shows how institutions direct entrepreneurial energy toward value creation or rent seeking.

Dosi (1982), Technological Paradigms and Trajectories

Frames new sectors as cumulative paths, not isolated firms or single technologies.

Teece (1986), Profiting from Technological Innovation

Connects innovation to complementary assets, appropriation and firm capability.

Freeman (1995), National Systems of Innovation

Links universities, firms, capital and public agencies into one innovation-system view.

05

Growth, labour and human capability

Romer (1990), Endogenous Technological Change

Places ideas, knowledge and research systems at the centre of long-run growth.

Lucas (1988), Mechanics of Economic Development

Connects human capital accumulation to development trajectories and productivity.

Aghion & Howitt (1992), Creative Destruction

Frames transformation as a process of renewal, displacement and institutional adaptation.

Mortensen & Pissarides (1994), Job Creation and Job Destruction

Supports labour-market work that goes beyond headline employment rates.

Goldin (2014), A Grand Gender Convergence / Hsieh et al. (2019), The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth

Anchors the human-capability side of Vision 2030 in gender, opportunity and allocation of talent.

06

Portfolio strategy, sovereign capital and frontier sectors

Markowitz (1952), Portfolio Selection

Gives the basic logic for treating national strategy as staged bets under uncertainty.

Hartwick (1977), Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources

Connects rent conversion to long-horizon investment and public value.

van der Ploeg (2011), Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?

Frames the fiscal and institutional conditions under which rents become productive assets.

Besley & Persson (2009), The Origins of State Capacity

Links public finance, legal capacity and state capability to economic transformation.

Bernstein, Lerner & Schoar (2013), Sovereign Wealth Funds

Explains how sovereign capital can shape investment strategy, governance and staged reallocation.

Spence (1973), Job Market Signaling; Geels (2002), Technological Transitions; Weinzierl (2018), Space, the Final Economic Frontier; Hausmann & Rodrik (2003), Self-Discovery

Ground the forcing-function logic behind frontier sectors, signalling, transition systems and self-discovery.

Comparative cases.

Each case highlights a different transformation problem: sovereign capital, digital government, industrial upgrading, talent formation, state capacity or private-sector growth. None is a template. Together, they help identify what can travel and what cannot.

Saudi ArabiaVision 2030 · anchor case2016 →
UAEVision 2071 · Operation 300bn2010 →
OmanVision 20402020 →
QatarNational Vision 20302008 →
MalaysiaWawasan 2020 · MADANI1991 →
IndonesiaIndonesia Emas 20452019 →
SingaporeSmart Nation · Industry 4.02014 →
KenyaVision 20302008 →
RwandaVision 20502020 →

Outputs.

SVL publishes in four formats. Each serves a different use: briefs for decision-makers, cases for teaching, diagnostics for strategy teams, and books for the deeper argument.

i.

Briefs

Working papers, 12–24 pages, quarterly cadence.

ii.

Cases

Teaching cases for executive and graduate audiences.

iii.

Diagnostics

Instrumented measurement tools for institutions and sectors.

iv.

Books

Book-length work behind SVL's core arguments.

Over time, SVL builds cumulative knowledge: each brief, case and diagnostic adds to a clearer account of how national transformation works.

§ 02Next

Where the work lives.

Three doors into the same research agenda. Start where your question lives.

§ Briefs

Read the working papers →

The current report stream: public drafts, partner previews, and papers in preparation.

§ Programmes

Six programmes →

Programmes that turn SVL research into briefings, roundtables, labs, teaching cases and practicums.

§ Partnerships

Work with SVL →

Briefs, diagnostics, executive learning, applied tools — for partners.